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马斯克公布特斯拉新版大计划:将开发集成太阳能产品

第一财经 2016-07-21 10:44:00

责编:张瑜

特斯拉CEO伊隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)刚刚披露的最新版《秘密蓝图》谈到特斯拉正在研发新的电动汽车,以及在自动驾驶方面的规划。

7月21日消息, 特斯拉CEO伊隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)刚刚披露的最新版《秘密蓝图》谈到特斯拉正在研发新的电动汽车,以及在自动驾驶方面的规划。

马斯克宣布了升级版《特斯拉秘密蓝图》,内容总结如下:

将开发集成太阳能发电装置的车顶

扩张特斯拉的生产线,将覆盖“所有主要的”消费市场,电动重型货车与电动公共汽车均在研发中

将开发安全性高10倍的自动驾驶技术

将推出汽车共享功能,将使车主在不使用车时能获得盈利

10年前,2006年马斯克披露了《特斯拉秘密蓝图》,当时的战略可以总结如下:

开发跑车

用这些钱开发价格实惠的汽车

再用这些钱开发价格更实惠的汽车

上述过程中,还要提供零排放电动汽车

太阳能动力汽车

马斯克称将开发集成太阳能发电装置的车顶,该产品不仅仅能用太阳能技术自动发电,同时又要兼具美感。计划称该产品将通过智能手机和配备的APP进行管理。Musk尤其强调,SolarCity是特斯拉开发太阳能电池产品必不可少的一环。

6月19日,特斯拉(Tesla) 宣布收购太阳能组件生产商SolarCity。以每股收购价介于26.5美元—28.5美元收购SolarCity,此宗交易总价值最高将为28.6亿美元。

消息一出引发各方质疑,但Musk在此次计划发表中强调了太阳能技术的重要性,并称,特斯拉和SolarCiry作为独立公司的壁垒将被破除。

更多的车型

特斯拉称将扩展目前的生产线,其中电动重型货车,电动的公共汽车是重磅企划。Musk称:“两者都依然在开发的初级阶段,有望在明年完成。”

此前马斯克的预告出炉时,长期跟踪特斯拉的摩根士丹利分析师亚当· 乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)就曾推测将是与公共交通有关的系统。

另外,和Model 3同步,特斯拉将推出更小型的SUV,与Model 3共享操作平台。Musk指出,特斯拉将覆盖绝大部分消费级市场,并称“很可能并不需要比Model 3价格更低的汽车”。

4月,特斯拉发布了首款“平价版”电动汽车Model 3,在美售价为3.5万美元。该车将于2017年底才投产并陆续向预订客户发货。

自动驾驶

特斯拉称将开发安全性高10倍的自动驾驶技术。

此前特斯拉刚发第一起无人驾驶命案。5月7日,特斯拉的一辆Model S无人驾驶汽车发生车祸并造成驾驶员死亡。美国国家公路交通安全管理局6月30日表示对事故展开调查,以查清这部特斯拉汽车在事故发生时是否使用了自动驾驶系统。

因为特斯拉并未将这起车祸向投资者及时公开披露,Musk曾与《财富》杂志编辑在推特上展开骂战。

汽车共享

马斯克称,当自动驾驶被监管部门批准后,用户就可以随时随地召唤(summon)自己的特斯拉了,当汽车接到用户后,用户就可以在车上读书、睡觉、干任何事情。

用户还可以通过特斯拉的APP,把自己的车共享出来给有需要的人用,这样当你不用汽车的时候,它就可以帮你创造收入。

马斯克还表示,如果在某些城市,特斯拉汽车的需求超过供给,该公司就会运营自己的车队。

马斯克还透露出参与分享经济的野心,他认为,无人驾驶汽车最终将会获得监管者的批准。他预计,用户今后几乎可以随时随地召唤特斯拉汽车。一旦坐上汽车,便可睡觉、阅读,或从事任何事情,而交通运输工作则完全交给自动驾驶系统来完成。

除此之外,他还计划组建一支特斯拉汽车共享车队:车主只需要按下移动应用上的一个按钮,即可对外出租闲置的汽车。“这将大幅降低私家车的真实拥有成 本,使得任何人都可以拥有特斯拉。由于多数汽车真正得以利用的时间仅为5%至10%,所以无人驾驶汽车的经济价值将达到普通汽车的好几倍。”马斯克写道。

除了汽车共享计划外,马斯克还计划在供不应求的城市组建自己的车队,确保用户随时随地都能约车。

博客全文如下:

Master Plan, Part Deux

Elon Musk July 20, 2016

The first master plan that I wrote 10 years ago is now in the final stages of completion. It wasn't all that complicated and basically consisted of:

Create a low volume car, which would necessarily be expensive

Use that money to develop a medium volume car at a lower price

Use that money to create an affordable, high volume car

And...

Provide solar power. No kidding, this has literally been on our website for 10 years.

The reason we had to start off with step 1 was that it was all I could afford to do with what I made from PayPal. I thought our chances of success were so low that I didn't want to risk anyone's funds in the beginning but my own. The list of successful car company startups is short. As of 2016, the number of American car companies that haven't gone bankrupt is a grand total of two: Ford and Tesla. Starting a car company is idiotic and an electric car company is idiocy squared.

Also, a low volume car means a much smaller, simpler factory, albeit with most things done by hand. Without economies of scale, anything we built would be expensive, whether it was an economy sedan or a sports car. While at least some people would be prepared to pay a high price for a sports car, no one was going to pay $100k for an electric Honda Civic, no matter how cool it looked.

Part of the reason I wrote the first master plan was to defend against the inevitable attacks Tesla would face accusing us of just caring about making cars for rich people, implying that we felt there was a shortage of sports car companies or some other bizarre rationale. Unfortunately, the blog didn't stop countless attack articles on exactly these grounds, so it pretty much completely failed that objective.

However, the main reason was to explain how our actions fit into a larger picture, so that they would seem less random. The point of all this was, and remains, accelerating the advent of sustainable energy, so that we can imagine far into the future and life is still good. That's what "sustainable" means. It's not some silly, hippy thing -- it matters for everyone.

By definition, we must at some point achieve a sustainable energy economy or we will run out of fossil fuels to burn and civilization will collapse. Given that we must get off fossil fuels anyway and that virtually all scientists agree that dramatically increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon levels is insane, the faster we achieve sustainability, the better.

Here is what we plan to do to make that day come sooner:

Integrate Energy Generation and Storage

Create a smoothly integrated and beautiful solar-roof-with-battery product that just works, empowering the individual as their own utility, and then scale that throughout the world. One ordering experience, one installation, one service contact, one phone app.

We can't do this well if Tesla and SolarCity are different companies, which is why we need to combine and break down the barriers inherent to being separate companies. That they are separate at all, despite similar origins and pursuit of the same overarching goal of sustainable energy, is largely an accident of history. Now that Tesla is ready to scale Powerwall and SolarCity is ready to provide highly differentiated solar, the time has come to bring them together.

Expand to Cover the Major Forms of Terrestrial Transport

Today, Tesla addresses two relatively small segments of premium sedans and SUVs. With the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck, we plan to address most of the consumer market. A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below.

What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.

In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. We believe the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport, while increasing safety and making it really fun to operate.

With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager. Traffic congestion would improve due to increased passenger areal density by eliminating the center aisle and putting seats where there are currently entryways, and matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles, thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional heavy buses. It would also take people all the way to their destination. Fixed summon buttons at existing bus stops would serve those who don't have a phone. Design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bikes.

Autonomy

As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability, meaning that any given system in the car could break and your car will still drive itself safely. It is important to emphasize that refinement and validation of the software will take much longer than putting in place the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware.

Even once the software is highly refined and far better than the average human driver, there will still be a significant time gap, varying widely by jurisdiction, before true self-driving is approved by regulators. We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day.

I should add a note here to explain why Tesla is deploying partial autonomy now, rather than waiting until some point in the future. The most important reason is that, when used correctly, it is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves and it would therefore be morally reprehensible to delay release simply for fear of bad press or some mercantile calculation of legal liability.

According to the recently released 2015 NHTSA report, automotive fatalities increased by 8% to one death every 89 million miles. Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice that number and the system gets better every day. It would no more make sense to disable Tesla's Autopilot, as some have called for, than it would to disable autopilot in aircraft, after which our system is named.

It is also important to explain why we refer to Autopilot as "beta". This is not beta software in any normal sense of the word. Every release goes through extensive internal validation before it reaches any customers. It is called beta in order to decrease complacency and indicate that it will continue to improve (Autopilot is always off by default). Once we get to the point where Autopilot is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average, the beta label will be removed.

Sharing

When true self-driving is approved by regulators, it will mean that you will be able to summon your Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Once it picks you up, you will be able to sleep, read or do anything else enroute to your destination.

You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost. This dramatically lowers the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.

In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own fleet, ensuring you can always hail a ride from us no matter where you are.

So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:

Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage

Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments

Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning

Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it.

(综合来源:新浪科技、TechWeb、IT之家、华尔街见闻)

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